Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on 12 October that it had struck a third “violator” supertanker in two days, the latest of the Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks it has claimed. The statement, carried by Iranian state television, named no vessel, no flag, no operator and no method.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) logged one projectile strike on 11 October, and India’s shipping minister named two ships carrying Indian crew that were hit the same day, a narrower record than the Guard’s. Neither account confirms three supertankers, and neither attributes the damage to anyone, which leaves the Strait of Hormuz tanker count resting on Tehran’s word and the oil price moving on it.
The IRGC Claimed Three Supertankers and Named None
The Guard’s naval public relations office said the vessel was hit on Monday morning and caught fire. “The third violator supertanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The attack caused a fire on board,” the statement said, as carried by TASS.
The IRGC said the ship had switched off its navigation system and ignored warnings before trying to leave the waterway, the same justification it gave for the two earlier vessels. It also warned that any commercial ship cooperating with the US military in the strait and the Gulf would meet a “decisive response”, according to Anadolu’s report of the statement. No independent source has verified a third Strait of Hormuz tanker loss.
UKMTO Logged One Projectile Strike, and India Named Two Ships
UKMTO’s notice of 11 October reported a tanker transiting outbound struck by an unidentified projectile at 1200 GMT, with damage to its port side. The report came from the vessel’s company security officer, all crew were reported safe, and authorities were investigating. The notice identified neither the ship nor the source of the projectile, which is standard for a Strait of Hormuz tanker advisory issued while an investigation is open.
Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal filled part of that gap, saying the Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Valthera, carrying 11 Indian crew, was struck by a projectile in the strait on Sunday and caught fire, with all Indian crew safe. He also said the MT Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone at the anchorage for Oman’s port of Sohar, where nine of its 11 Indian seafarers were rescued and two remain missing. Both incidents fall on 11 October, leaving the IRGC’s two-day tally of three unmatched by any Strait of Hormuz tanker record.
Investor Takeaway
The IRGC has claimed three supertankers in two days while shipping bodies have logged one projectile strike and two named vessels on a single day, so the claim count is running ahead of the verified Strait of Hormuz tanker record.
The June Navigation Memorandum Never Took Effect
A US-Iran memorandum on navigation agreed in June was meant to give commercial traffic agreed routes through the strait. It stalled over security disagreements and has never governed a single transit, which is why the current Strait of Hormuz tanker regime is set by Iranian warnings rather than by any bilateral text. Iran effectively closed the waterway after the US and Israel launched their war on it on 28 February.
Tehran has since threatened vessels that use routes other than those its authorities designate, which is the practical Strait of Hormuz tanker rulebook owners now plan around. Talks have not restarted on terms either side accepts, and Washington’s position hardened further when Trump rejected Iran’s offer on the strait in late September.
Riyadh’s Airport Attack Put Trump’s Yemen Decision in Play
A Houthi strike on Riyadh’s airport killed 13 people, and President Trump said on Saturday he is weighing whether to join Saudi military action in Yemen, a decision that would widen the conflict well beyond the Strait of Hormuz tanker war. The Yemen front already moved the market this month, when OPEC+ held November output steady against a Saudi offensive.
The Brent oil price reached about $106.80 on Monday morning before easing to roughly $105 on Tuesday, a move that tracked the claims and denials around Hormuz rather than any confirmed loss of barrels. Source: Oilprice.comThe Brent oil price rose about 2% to $106.80 on Monday morning as the Saudi attack and the tanker strikes revived supply fears, before easing to around $105 on Tuesday. Brent crude oil has given back a session of that move with no confirmed barrel loss behind it. The full Brent crude oil price case, including the levels that would break the range in either direction, sits in FinanceFeeds’ Brent analysis published today, alongside Monday’s read on the Riyadh airport strike and the tanker hit off Oman.
Strait of Hormuz Tanker Freight Peaked at $637,000 a Day on 8 October
Very large crude carrier rates on the Gulf Coast to China run reached a record above $637,000 a day on 8 October before slipping to $634,974, on Baltic Exchange data reported by Reuters. Shipowners have repriced the route faster than governments have settled the law, and rates at that level price out marginal voyages without anyone declaring the route closed. Freight at that cost reaches the oil price through the delivered barrel rather than through supply.
Gulf oil exports still recovered to 81% of prewar levels in September, with crude and condensate at 91% and refined products at 60%. That gap between crude and products is where another run of Strait of Hormuz tanker incidents would show up first, and it is worth watching more closely than the claim counts, as the $74 million wager on Kharg Island showed last month.
Investor Takeaway
Gulf exports at 81% of prewar levels in September, with refined products lagging at 60%, show the disruption landing on product cargoes well before it reaches the Brent crude oil benchmark.