JPMorgan just reset its long-term gold price target in a big way, while keeping its blockbuster $6,300 forecast for 2026 intact.
The bank reiterated its year-end 2026 call of $6,300 per ounce. However, it also meaningfully raised its long-term gold forecast by 15% to $4,500.
Clearly, by raising the long-term anchor, JPMorgan is telling investors that, despite the choppiness, gold’s baseline valuation continues to move higher, even if volatility returns.
Perhaps the biggest catalyst for the shiny yellow metal at this point is structural demand, currently being spearheaded by central banks, pointing to a growing “reserve currency paradigm shift.”
Gold’s price activity over the past few days suggests it wants a fresh leg higher, even with some bumpiness.
On Tuesday, Feb. 24, spot gold logged a three-week high of $5,248.89 before investors started taking profits and the dollar strengthened, pushing prices to roughly $5,148 later in the day.
Then, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, gold climbed nearly 1.1% to $5,202/oz. on the back of a softer dollar, tariff uncertainty, and U.S.-Iran tensions, according to Reuters. This will effectively keep the safe-haven bid alive and kicking.
Silver, though, has gotten a lot more “caffeinated,” surging nearly 3.9% on Wednesday, Feb. 25, to $90.73/oz., after hovering around the $87.87 mark the previous day.
Over the past couple of months, billionaire investors such as David Einhorn and Ray Dalio have also been framing gold as a trust barometer.
Einhorn’s bullishness stems from central banks no longer treating the shiny yellow metal as a dusty diversifier. We’ve seen a major credibility shift recently, and the price action is effectively reinforcing that narrative.
Dalio took it up a notch or two.
He hails gold as “the safest money” in a world he feels is moving towards a crippling “capital war.”
Dalio laid out the case for at least a 5% to 15% allocation to gold at Davos, underscoring an evolving financial order.
Put simply, gold is becoming more of a strategic reserve asset, not just an inflationary hedge.
Photo by Richard T. Nowitz on Getty Images
Other major banks’ latest gold targets
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute (Feb. 4, 2026):$6,100-$6,300/oz. by end of 2026.
- UBS (Jan. 29, 2026): Raised targets to $6,200/oz. for March, June, and September 2026, and sees $5,900/oz. by end of 2026.
- Deutsche Bank (Jan. 26, 2026): Sees gold climbing to $6,000/oz. in 2026.
- Société Générale (Jan. 26, 2026): Expects $6,000/oz. by end of 2026.
- Goldman Sachs (Jan. 22, 2026): Raised end-2026 forecast to $5,400/oz. (from $4,900).
- Morgan Stanley (Jan. 23, 2026):Bull case target of $5,700/oz. for H2 2026.
- Citi Research (Jan. 13, 2026): Raised 0-3 month price target to $5,000/oz.
- HSBC (Jan. 8, 2026): $4,450/oz. by year-end 2026.
Sources: Reuters, Investing.com
JPMorgan says gold’s structural repricing is far from over
At the center of JP Morgan’s bullish gold call is central-bank buying.
The bank forecasts point to a whopping 800 tons of official-sector buying in 2026, hailing it as an “ongoing, unexhausted” reserve-diversification trend.
- 2025 official-sector net buying: Reached 863.3 tonnes (down 21% compared to 2024’s 1,092.4t, but still comfortably above the 2010-2021 average of 473t).
- Q4’25 rebound: Net purchases jumped to 230t, up 6% from 218t in Q3, despite gold continuing to hit multiple record highs.
- Central-bank intent remains strong: Per a June 2025 survey, 76% expect the shiny metal to form a much larger share of reserves in five years, with 95% expecting gold reserves to grow in the upcoming year.
Sources: World Gold Council, Reuters
Consequently, the bank has raised its long-term forecast, and a higher floor means future pullbacks could bottom out at levels previously considered stretched.
Silver is a different story, though.
Without the support from central banks, JP Morgan is much more cautious in the near term, warning of a steeper shakeout. Still, the bank sees a much higher average floor of $75 to $80 an ounce.
More Gold:
- Gold, silver surge after record drop flashes technical signal
- Silver and gold tumble triggers major reset for mining stocks
- J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026
Interestingly, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, who has been sounding the alarm about the economy’s fragility, is also taking a contrarian stance on precious metals.
Zandi told CNBC he believes gold and silver may be more vulnerable than investors currently assume.
Geopolitics can clearly light a fire under metals, but Zandi even concedes that a second Iran strike could kick things into high gear.
Much of the current demand is momentum-driven, and if the broader market sentiment flips, the “safe haven” narrative could unravel fast.
Gold and silver performance snapshot
Gold (USD Returns)
- Today: +0.85% (+$43.69)
- 30 Days: +1.44% (+$73.39)
- 6 Months: +52.44% (+$1,774.44)
- 1 Year: +76.89% (+$2,242.26)
- 5 Years: +197.38% (+$3,423.75)
- 20 Years: +822.91% (+$4,599.42)
Source: GoldPrice.org
Silver (USD Returns)
- Today: +3.79% (+$3.32)
- 30 Days: -17.57% (-$18.66)
- 6 Months: +126.95% (+$48.95)
- 1 Year: +174.15% (+$55.59)
- 5 Years: +227.99% (+$60.83)
Source: GoldPrice.org
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