Oil prices fell slightly, with Brent crude just below $96 a barrel on Friday, November 13, close to Thursday’s settlement.
The fall comes as the International Energy Agency said global oil supply has overtaken demand for the first time since the Iran war began.
What happened to oil prices today?
Brent crude futures for January delivery traded at $95.77 at 09:50 GMT, almost flat after Thursday’s settlement of $95.82. The contract has ranged between $95.07 and $96.75 on Friday.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for December delivery was at $88.45, down 0.3% from $88.74.
Brent climbed 3.3% on Thursday but remains 2.4% below last Friday’s close of $98.32, putting it on course for a second weekly decline after a 16% slump the week before.
What did the IEA’s November report say?
“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report.
Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day (mb/d) to 105.4 mb/d in October, after a 3 mb/d jump in September, on higher Gulf exports despite continued attacks on tankers.
Gulf exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 mb/d, still 26% below pre-war levels.
The IEA raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 mb/d. It now expects supply to fall by 4.8 mb/d in 2026, compared with a 5.8 mb/d decline forecast in its October report.
It cut its 2027 supply growth forecast to 6.6 mb/d, reaching 108.1 mb/d, from 7.7 mb/d a month ago, citing constrained Iranian shipments.
Demand was trimmed slightly. World oil demand is now forecast to fall by 2.7 mb/d this year to 102.3 mb/d, against October’s estimate of a 2.6 mb/d drop to 102.4 mb/d.
The IEA kept its forecast of a 2 mb/d rebound in 2027, with demand returning to growth around March.
Read more:OPEC’s November report showed output jumping
Are oil inventories rising again?
Yes, mostly at sea. Observed global oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels, or 1.7 mb/d, in October, the first increase since June, the IEA said.
Oil on water surged by 86 million barrels to its highest level since January. On-land stocks kept falling and remain at their lowest since at least 2016.
That follows a 10 million-barrel draw in September. Observed stocks are still down a cumulative 462 million barrels since the war began.
The agency’s balances point to a surplus in the fourth quarter and a bigger build in 2027.
North Sea Dated crude tumbled 32% from a high of $136 a barrel on October 8 to $93 at the time of writing, the IEA said, though that is still $22 above pre-war levels. In October’s report, Dated was near $134 and Brent futures around $107.
European diesel prices fell 11% over the same period but, at close to $180 a barrel, are 77% above pre-war levels.
What’s moving oil prices?
President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war, signalling he will stick with the blockade on Iranian oil shipments, Reuters reported.
In a separate interview, Trump said he may use force against Iran “right now” if US allies and ships are threatened, Anadolu Agency reported.
US crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels in the week ended November 6, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.1 million-barrel draw.
Shipping risks persist.
Iran’s military said on Thursday that four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Yemen’s Houthis said they had attacked Saudi oil facilities. Reuters could not immediately verify the Iranian accounts.
What happens next for oil prices?
The IEA said attacks on shipping remain a risk to its forecasts, as maritime security is pivotal to a sustained recovery.
The agency also flagged an accelerated release of emergency diesel stocks. The next Oil Market Report is due on December 11.
Should you buy oil now?
The IEA’s report suggests the crude market is loosening as Gulf barrels return, while low on-land stocks and tight diesel supply keep prices well above pre-war levels.
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AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.
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