Oil prices rose on Wednesday as escalating tensions across the Middle East heightened concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies, with diplomatic efforts offering little sign of an imminent breakthrough.
At 4:00 AM EST, Brent crude futures gained 1.2% to trade around $115.4 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose nearly 1.5% to approximately $101.38.
Prices have remained around the mid-$110 range this week as the conflict between the US and Iran continues and the prospects for a diplomatic resolution remain uncertain.
Fresh threats to Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure have added another source of concern for oil markets.
Houthi-Saudi conflict adds to supply concerns
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement is also threatening to intensify, potentially worsening an already fragile regional situation.
The Houthis claimed on Tuesday that they had struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery with a missile, saying the attack caused a fire at the complex.
The refinery, the biggest in Saudi Arabia, has a processing capacity of 550,000 barrels per day and was shut during the initial months of the US-Iran war.
The claim adds to concerns about the security of critical energy infrastructure in the region, where further attacks could disrupt supplies or increase the risk premium built into oil prices.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday in an effort to ease regional tensions.
However, the discussions have yet to produce a clear breakthrough that would reassure energy markets.
No clear resolution to US-Iran war
Prospects for an end to the US-Iran war remain uncertain.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the conflict would end on his terms, insisting that any agreement must ensure Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon.
Trump also said “anything is possible” when reporters asked about a potential attack on Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3.
Reports that Washington is preparing for a prolonged conflict, alongside intensifying incidents involving commercial shipping, have added to market uncertainty.
Nearly 30 attacks on commercial ships and tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz were reported in October 2026, making it the worst month for maritime attacks since the conflict began, Al Jazeera reported.
ING sees midterms as key to oil outlook
ING analysts said oil’s recent gains suggest markets are assigning a greater probability to renewed escalation.
“We’ll likely have to wait until after the 3 November US midterms more clarity on how the situation in the Middle East evolves,” said ING strategists.
They added that oil prices could retreat even without a US-Iran agreement if the elections pass without renewed strikes on Iran, allowing the market’s geopolitical risk premium to begin easing.
“Oil prices remain elevated as the market waits for greater clarity on President Trump’s next move toward Iran. If we get past the elections without renewed strikes on Iran, that might be enough for the market’s risk premium to start eroding,” they added.
Investors are also awaiting the US Energy Information Administration’s weekly oil inventory report, due later Wednesday, for fresh indications of supply and demand.
OPEC+ producers are expected to discuss output policy at an upcoming meeting on Sunday.
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