Oil prices hovered near a critical threshold on Tuesday, with Brent barely above $100 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $90 as traders weighed a sharp recovery in Middle East exports against renewed attacks on energy infrastructure.
Brent traded around $100.60 while WTI was near $89.70 in Asian hours.
The market has now tested the $100 area repeatedly after Monday’s fall to a two-week low, but each attempt to break lower has run into the same obstacle: physical supply is improving, yet the security of that supply remains fragile.
That leaves Brent caught between an increasingly bearish supply picture and a geopolitical premium that refuses to disappear.
Supply is finally pushing hard against $100
The bearish case has strengthened materially.
G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with an early focus on diesel.
OPEC+ also kept November production targets unchanged, while Middle East crude exports climbed back towards pre-war levels late last month.
Kpler data show regional exports exceeded the pre-war average of about 18 million barrels a day on four days in the final week of September, reaching as high as 22.5 million.
The seven-day average stood at about 18.5 million barrels a day on October 1.
KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer said that stronger exports and emergency stock releases were taking some immediate supply anxiety out of the market. That helps explain why Brent has struggled to sustain rallies much above $102.
The floor survives because the system is still fragile
The counterargument is that headline export volumes overstate how normal the market has become.
Shipping through the Gulf remains expensive and dangerous. Analysts have noted that tanker shuttle routes can cost as much as $40 million per round trip, while a fresh run of attacks around Hormuz has raised insurance and security costs.
Refined-product flows also remain far weaker than crude flows, keeping diesel markets unusually tight.
The geopolitical backdrop worsened again after Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi airports, military sites and an Aramco refinery at Rabigh.
Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the refinery damage. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, meanwhile, have launched a new offensive around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
BMI analysts said that a preliminary US-Iran agreement remains unlikely before early 2027, suggesting volatility around Gulf shipping could persist for months.
What decides whether Brent finally cracks
The next break will depend on whether supply normalisation proves durable rather than temporary.
If Gulf exports remain near pre-war levels, G7 barrels reach the market smoothly and diesel tightness eases, Brent could lose the $100 floor and move towards the mid-$90s.
Saudi Arabia’s recent reduction in November crude prices to Asian buyers also points to a softer near-term balance.
But the downside is not clean. OPEC+ producers are still pumping below headline quotas, tanker attacks are increasing and global inventories remain tight after months of disruption.
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