The Brent crude price fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon for the first time in about a month, as hopes of a US-Iran deal outweighed a surprise drop in US crude inventories.
Front-month Brent futures traded at $98.90 at 16:02 GMT, down 4.5% from Tuesday’s settlement of $103.60. The contract hit a session low of $98.67, having traded as high as $104.87 earlier in the day.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 4.5% to $91.79.
Brent last traded below $100 on 7 October, when it touched $99.62, and has not settled below that level since 22 September.
Bloomberg said Dated Brent, the physical benchmark, also fell to its lowest since September.
EIA draw fails to stem selling
Brent had briefly dipped below $100 shortly after 14:00 GMT before recovering to about $101.40. It was near $101.20 at 15:40 GMT, then broke lower in the 15:45 GMT bar and fell through $100 within ten minutes.
The slide came after weekly US government data that would normally support prices. The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks fell by 865,000 barrels in the week to 30 October, against a forecast for a 378,000-barrel draw in an Investing.com consensus.
Distillate inventories dropped 3.6 million barrels, against expectations of a 1.1 million-barrel increase, and refinery utilisation rose to 94.5%.
That traders sold into the bullish data suggests geopolitics, not US supply, is driving the market.
Iran talks and the midterms
US President Donald Trump has said they have no immediate plans to strike Iran, saying “we seem to be getting everything we want”.
Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if its demands on sanctions and frozen assets were met, with Qatar mediating.
Bloomberg said Trump played down the prospect of strikes after Democrats swept the midterm elections, and that flows through Hormuz were holding near pre-war levels.
“With concessions being made by Iran, it seems that the mood is shifting towards a more secure deal,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said in a Reuters report.
Supply is also catching up. JPMorgan estimates the oil market ran a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October, up from 1.1 million in September, according to OilPrice.
Brent technical outlook
Wednesday’s drop is Brent’s third straight daily loss and follows a 7.6% slide on Monday, its biggest one-day fall since late July.
The $100 level is now the immediate pivot. A settlement below it would be the first since 22 September and would put the October intraday low of $99.62 behind the market. Today’s low near $98.67 is the next marker for sellers.
A recovery above $100 would point to a failed breakdown, with Tuesday’s $103.60 close the next resistance. Goldman Sachs still sees Brent at $105 by December.
Should you buy oil after Brent’s drop below $100?
Brent is still up sharply this year, and headlines from the Iran talks can move it several dollars in minutes. If you are considering a position, compare costs, leverage and regulation first.
See our guide to the best commodity trading platforms.
Traders now watch for Brent’s settlement against $100 and for any sign of a signed US-Iran agreement on Hormuz.
AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.
The post Brent crude price falls below $100 as Iran deal hopes outweigh EIA draw appeared first on Invezz