Why Is Payward’s Profit Still Below Last Year’s Level?
Payward’s adjusted EBITDA increased by $37 million from the second quarter, lifting its adjusted EBITDA margin from 5% to 12%. However, the company remains well below the $178.6 million reported in the third quarter of 2025.The earnings improvement accompanied a change in financial reporting. Payward replaced adjusted revenue with total platform margin (TPM), which deducts both trading costs and staking rewards paid to customers. The new measure therefore captures a narrower portion of platform economics than the previously reported adjusted revenue figure.Transaction-based TPM increased 7% sequentially to $234 million, while asset-based TPM climbed 26% to $128 million. Access-based TPM, covering subscriptions, licensing and other service fees, grew 7% to $125 million.Combined asset- and access-based activities contributed 52% of total platform margin, compared with 46% a year earlier. Access-based TPM alone increased 59% year over year, suggesting that revenue sources less directly dependent on trading volumes are becoming more important.The difference between annual trading volume and account growth is also notable. Funded accounts increased 37% to 7.1 million, while billable accounts rose 74% to 1.5 million. Yet transaction volume remained 30% below the previous year’s level.Payward’s reported share of industry spot trading volume reached 6.5% in September, compared with 3.3% a year earlier. Derivatives contracts traded increased 84% year over year to 66 million.
Investor Takeaway
Can Prediction Markets and Stock Perpetuals Add Trading Revenue?
Payward plans to launch prediction markets for U.S. customers, although it has not announced a release date or disclosed the planned product’s commercial structure.The company is also developing single-stock perpetual futures using its CFTC-regulated designated contract market, derivatives clearing organization and futures commission merchant infrastructure.That expansion faces legal uncertainty. On November 10, Payward joined Coinbase, Kalshi and three trading firms in supporting the CFTC’s authority over stock perpetual futures in federal litigation.As FinanceFeeds reported, a federal judge had questioned the regulator’s authority while declining to immediately halt trading in the disputed products.Payward’s proposed stock perpetuals remain subject to regulatory approval. The company also intends to allow customers to share collateral across products through a common margin and risk-management system.Shared collateral could reduce the amount of capital customers need to maintain across separate accounts, although the financial benefits will depend on margin requirements and the range of eligible instruments.
How Much Has Payward’s Tokenized Equities Business Grown?
Payward is expanding xStocks, its tokenized equities framework, which surpassed $1 billion in assets under management in October.On November 11, the company added more than 200 UK and European listed equities, bringing the broader framework to over 1,500 tokenized assets. Payward subsequently disclosed more than $1.1 billion in assets under management, over $45 billion in cumulative transaction volume and more than 550,000 unique holders.The expansion, covered by FinanceFeeds, is supported by a partnership with GTN, which provides brokerage and custody infrastructure for the underlying shares.However, xStocks remain unavailable to U.S. and UK investors, limiting their distribution in two major equity markets.Payward is developing funds based on xStocks and a proposed onchain primary offering product, xPO, through which private companies could raise capital by issuing tokenized shares. The latter remains subject to regulatory approval.
Investor Takeaway
What Do Banking and AI Expansion Mean for Payward?
Payward plans to move U.S. dollar wire settlement onto its Federal Reserve master account, reducing reliance on correspondent banks. Kraken Financial secured limited-purpose Federal Reserve access in March 2026, although the operational migration remains a planned step.The company also intends to test a U.S. credit card and introduce deposit-funded lending in Europe following its proposed acquisition of Saldo Bank, which remains subject to regulatory approval.AI is now Payward’s fifth business pillar. Kraken AI already supports conversational trading instructions in the U.S. app, while Kraken Pro offers an AI assistant and strategy-building tools.Next, Payward plans a personal finance agent operating within customer-defined limits, with approval required before transactions or workflows are executed. Its first shared agent framework is expected in early 2027.The company has not disclosed projected revenue from these AI initiatives.