Why Does Bitget’s CEO Expect Bitcoin To Stay Rangebound?
Bitcoin could finish 2026 broadly around current levels despite its recent rally, according to Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, who sees interest rates and macroeconomic conditions limiting the cryptocurrency’s upside over the remaining months of the year.Chen said it is difficult to predict whether Bitcoin will end the year above or below $70,000, particularly because monetary policy could turn less favorable for risk assets. Higher interest rates would increase yields available from traditional assets and could reduce investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said.Her base case is less directional. Chen said Bitcoin could end the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below its current price, describing a forecast centered on roughly the same trading range as the “more responsible” expectation.The view contrasts with more aggressive bullish forecasts that assume Bitcoin’s latest advance will extend into another sustained leg higher. Chen instead sees the asset’s growing connection with traditional finance as making interest rates, liquidity and economic conditions increasingly important to its performance.
Why Are Interest Rates Becoming More Important For Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has become more closely connected to conventional financial markets as institutional ownership, exchange-traded products and corporate holdings have grown. That gives macroeconomic conditions a larger role in determining demand than during earlier crypto cycles dominated primarily by retail traders.Higher rates can pressure Bitcoin in several ways. They increase the return available from cash and government debt, raise financing costs and can reduce liquidity available for speculative assets. Lower rates can have the opposite effect by making non-yielding and higher-risk investments comparatively more attractive.This means Bitcoin investors may need to watch central bank expectations alongside crypto-specific factors such as ETF flows, corporate purchases and network activity. A strong cryptocurrency narrative may not be enough to sustain gains if monetary conditions become materially tighter.
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Will The U.S. Government Start Buying Bitcoin?
Chen is also skeptical that the U.S. government will begin directly purchasing Bitcoin for its national reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, despite the administration’s favorable approach toward digital assets.The Trump administration created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 using Bitcoin already forfeited to the federal government. Officials were also instructed to study budget-neutral methods that could potentially increase the government’s holdings without requiring additional taxpayer spending.The U.S. government currently controls an estimated 328,372 BTC, with much of that inventory originating from criminal seizures and asset forfeitures rather than purchases in the open market.Chen argued that converting the reserve from a stockpile of seized assets into an active government purchasing program would represent a much larger policy decision. Such a move could require debate among lawmakers and political parties over the government’s role in owning and accumulating a volatile financial asset.“From a policy perspective, it’s probably unlikely,” Chen said. “I just don’t see it coming right now.”
Why Would Direct U.S. Bitcoin Purchases Matter?
Direct federal purchases would differ substantially from retaining Bitcoin the government already owns. Buying BTC would create a new source of sovereign demand and could strengthen the argument that Bitcoin is being treated as a strategic reserve asset rather than simply property obtained through enforcement actions.Such a policy could also affect expectations beyond the immediate amount purchased. Traders would likely assess whether other governments might adopt similar strategies, potentially increasing competition for a fixed supply of Bitcoin.Without direct purchases, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has a more limited effect on market demand. Keeping forfeited Bitcoin reduces the possibility that those holdings will be sold, but it does not create the recurring buying pressure that an accumulation program could produce.For Bitcoin through the rest of 2026, that leaves monetary policy and private-sector demand as more immediate variables. ETF flows, corporate treasury buying and changes in interest-rate expectations could have a greater effect on prices than speculation about federal purchases if the administration stops short of actively adding Bitcoin to its reserve.