Bank of America just made one of the boldest silver price calls on Wall Street. Michael Widmer, the bank’s head of metals research, projects silver could reach anywhere between $135 and $309 per ounce before the end of 2026.
The wide range is intentional. Both targets are anchored in historical ratio math, and neither is as far-fetched as it sounds given where gold is trading today.
The math behind both targets starts with the gold-to-silver ratio, currently sitting at roughly 59:1. With gold near $5,000, applying the 2011 ratio low of 32:1 puts silver at $135. Apply the 1980 extreme of 14:1, the level reached during the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze, and the number climbs to $309.
Silver has already shown it can move fast and violently. The metal hit a new high of $121.67 on Jan. 29 before crashing 36% to $75 within days. It has since recovered to around $81.50. Widmer sees the dip as a reset, not a reversal.
Why the gold-to-silver ratio is the silver price signal investors should watch
Ratio compression is the engine behind Widmer’s thesis. Silver tends to lag gold early in a bull market, then explode higher in the later stages.
That pattern played out clearly in 2011, when silver more than tripled while gold gained around 80% over the same 18-month stretch. Widmer believes 2026 sets up similarly, with gold momentum already well established.
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The $135 base case assumes a natural bull market continuation without a squeeze or panic buying. The $309 target is a different animal. It would need a liquidity event, a delivery squeeze, or a surge in physical demand that overwhelms paper markets.
A silver price deficit that is getting structurally worse
The supply picture may be more compelling than the ratio math. The Silver Institute reported the silver market recorded its fifth consecutive year of structural deficit in 2025, with demand outstripping supply by roughly 95 million ounces.
The cumulative shortfall since 2021 has now climbed above 820 million ounces, equal to an entire year of global mining output. A sixth deficit of around 67 million ounces is projected for 2026, per the Silver Institute.
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Mine supply has plateaued near 813 million ounces annually. New projects take seven to 15 years to develop, and green energy mandates are locking in demand regardless of price.
What is driving silver demand structurally higher
- Solar panels. Photovoltaic installations hit a global record in 2025 and are accelerating. Silver is a core input with no viable substitute at industrial scale.
- Electric vehicles. Greater electrification is adding tens of millions of ounces in annual demand from the automotive sector alone.
- 5G and semiconductors. Next-generation communications infrastructure uses silver extensively in connectors, coatings, and circuit boards.
- Investment demand. Western physical investment is forecast to rise 20% to a three-year high of 227 million ounces in 2026, as retail investors who missed the 2025 rally start moving in.
What could push the silver price to $309
Widmer identifies ratio snap-back as the primary trigger for a move toward higher targets. When COMEX lease rates spike and paper claims exceed available physical silver, delivery squeezes become possible.
That dynamic flashed warning signs in late 2025, when lease rates hit record highs amid tariff-related stockpiling by U.S. bullion banks. Gold’s trajectory matters too. Bank of America flagged a path to $6,000 gold under more aggressive scenarios. The higher gold climbs, the more mechanical pressure builds on the silver ratio.
Risks that could keep the silver price range-bound
Widmer frames his targets as scenarios, not certainties. A recession would cut industrial demand sharply and remove the green energy tailwind.
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A stall in gold below $5,000 removes the ratio catalyst entirely. The appointment of a more hawkishFederal Reserve chair has already introduced rate uncertainty that helped spark January’s brutal silver selloff.
Key risks investors should watch
- Supply squeeze at the source.Fresnillo’s Q4 report shows the world’s largest primary silver producer cut its 2026 silver output guidance to 42 to 46.5 million ounces, down from a prior forecast of 45 to 51 million ounces. Further operational setbacks could deepen the supply crunch but also signal stress deeper in the mining sector.
- Paper market caps. Short sellers and bullion banks can suppress spot prices for extended periods. Physical delivery squeezes are possible but not guaranteed on any timeline.
- Macro headwinds. Recession odds and dollar strength remain the biggest threats to any commodity rally in the second half of 2026.
The range between $135 and $309 is not a hedge. It reflects how much depends on whether silver’s next leg is driven by fundamentals alone or by a physical squeeze that turns a bull market into something historic.
Either way, Bank of America is not the only firm arguing the current silver price near $81.50 does not reflect where this market is headed.
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