Cboe Global Markets has launched the first products in its new prediction markets suite, Cboe Predicts, expanding its S&P 500-linked product lineup with binary options tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index.
The first contracts, listed under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are based on XSP, the Mini-S&P 500 Index, which is designed to track one-tenth the value of the S&P 500 Index. The products are available through Interactive Brokers and are expected to be offered on Charles Schwab in the coming months, with additional retail brokerage platforms likely to provide access over time.
The contracts allow traders to take a “yes” or “no” position on where XSP will close. A yes contract pays $100 if the index settles at or above a specified level and $0 otherwise, while a no contract pays $100 if the index settles below that level and $0 otherwise. The fixed-payout structure is designed to make the risk and reward profile easier to understand than traditional options strategies, while still operating within the listed-options market structure.
Cboe said the launch builds on demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading, particularly after the rapid growth of zero-day-to-expiry options on the S&P 500. In 2025, vertical spread trades averaged nearly 580,000 contracts per day in 0DTE SPX options, highlighting rising retail interest in defined-risk strategies tied to daily market moves.
A Regulated Entry Into Prediction Markets
The launch positions Cboe as a traditional market-infrastructure provider entering a category that has grown rapidly through event-contract platforms and crypto-native prediction markets. Unlike many political, sports or entertainment-focused prediction products, Cboe’s initial offering is limited to financial market outcomes and is structured as a securities-based options product.
That regulatory design is central to the product’s positioning. The contracts trade on Cboe Options Exchange, within the same framework as U.S.-listed options, and are centrally cleared through the Options Clearing Corporation. The structure gives the products institutional features such as exchange surveillance, standardized clearing and formal risk management during settlement.
Cboe has also emphasized education and investor protection. The exchange introduced a prediction markets resource hub and courses through The Options Institute, aiming to help traders understand yes-or-no contracts before moving into more advanced options concepts. The intermediated brokerage model is intended to support customer education, platform access controls and regulatory oversight.
Prediction Products Enter a Competitive Phase
Cboe’s move comes as prediction markets and event-based contracts are becoming a more contested area of U.S. market structure. Platforms such as Kalshi have expanded public awareness of event contracts, while brokerages and exchanges are exploring products that allow investors to trade directly on economic, market and policy outcomes.
For Cboe, the launch offers a way to defend and extend its core options franchise at a time when retail investors increasingly want simplified, defined-risk products. By linking the first contracts to XSP, the exchange is using an established S&P 500-linked benchmark rather than entering more legally sensitive categories such as elections or sports.
The broader implication is that prediction markets may increasingly split into two models: regulated financial-outcome products distributed through brokerage platforms, and broader event markets that face more complex legal and political scrutiny. Cboe’s approach suggests major exchanges see demand for prediction-style trading, but prefer to anchor it inside established securities rules, central clearing and familiar index-option infrastructure.
The success of Cboe Predicts will depend on liquidity, broker adoption and whether retail traders view binary market-outcome contracts as simpler than existing options strategies. If the rollout gains traction, it could accelerate the migration of prediction-market mechanics into mainstream brokerage accounts.